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Orion Energy
- updated 7/3/19
- OESX
 
 
Entry/Exit Point                                                                                            in at 2.66 / sell at $3
                                                                                                                        or when finishes run
 
52Wk Hi/Lo                                                                                                   0.53 - 3.09
number of 10% Sine Wave rolls in 1-yr chart                                             6 - good
           
P/E                                                                                                                  n/a (net loss)
 
Profitable or string of losses?                                                                       String of losses           
 
Current Ratio                                                                                    1.5 not good
- Current Assets divided by Current Liabilities
- Rule of Thumb: 2 is considered adequate for manufacturers    
 
LT Debt as a percent of capitalization                                                        84% very hi
- LT Debt / LT Debt + OE on balance sheet
 
Interest Coverage Ratio                                                                               negative - very bad     
- EBIT / I
- Rule of Thumb for Safety:  3-4

 
Cash Flow from Operations                                                  negative and growing - very bad

Cash Burn Rate                                                                     87 / 66 = 1.3 quarters left. Bad
- Cash and Equivalents / quarterly net loss                                                                                 outdated - see below


Insider Activity                                                                      3 buys, no sales last 6 mo.s
                                                                                                at 0.57 - 3.00
 
Institutional Ownership                                                         37%                                                    
 
Short Interest                                                                        1%
 
Dividend
 
10-K / 10-Q
10-K 3/31/19
- Legal Proceedings  
there was a compensation lawsuit; settlement had no material effect                                             
- Risk Factors
history of losses, limited number of customers, now depending on sales agents, strong competition, government subsidies for LED lighting in some states and countries (subsidy risk), relying on third-party manufacturing, commodity risk, debt covenants, environmental regulation, fluctuating revenue and results, HQ for sale at a loss, no dividends for foreseeable future
- Related Party Transactions / Related Transactions
will be filed later


News Headlines
- Google News

* big new customer producing higher revenue and multiple expansion
- Seeking Alpha
- ProQuest (1 year)

* Orion financially backing Martin distributed energy firm


 
Most recent earnings press release
6/4/19 4Q
* revenue up 49% v. yr ago Q, small and narrowing net loss
* big new customer with $10M order
* benefitting from cost-cutting
* products becoming smarter (Internet of Things)
* working on big national accounts
* $8M in cash, $1M Q net loss = cash burn rate of 8 quarters left.


 
Bottom Line
- Terrible financial position, but stock price goes up and company endures despite it all
- it’s a generally improving situation
- up-to-date cash burn rate is 8 quarters left.  OK for Sine Wave Investing.  This company will not go bankrupt overnight.
- big new customer, but success may not persist.  ‘we’ve changed our distribution channels’ - I’ve heard this before in another company, but that stock continued to languish
- insiders and shorts not betting against the company
- there should be lots here to generate the kind of hope and despair that drives Sine Wave cycles
- OK for sine wave investing with risk management, e.g., small bet