Orion Energy
- updated 7/3/19
- OESX
Entry/Exit Point in at 2.66 / sell at $3
or when finishes run
52Wk Hi/Lo 0.53 - 3.09
number of 10% Sine Wave rolls in 1-yr chart 6 - good
P/E n/a (net loss)
Profitable or string of losses? String of losses
Current Ratio 1.5 not good
- Current Assets divided by Current Liabilities
- Rule of Thumb: 2 is considered adequate for manufacturers
LT Debt as a percent of capitalization 84% very hi
- LT Debt / LT Debt + OE on balance sheet
Interest Coverage Ratio negative - very bad
- EBIT / I
- Rule of Thumb for Safety: 3-4
Cash Flow from Operations negative and growing - very bad
Cash Burn Rate 87 / 66 = 1.3 quarters left. Bad
- Cash and Equivalents / quarterly net loss outdated - see below
Insider Activity 3 buys, no sales last 6 mo.s
at 0.57 - 3.00
Institutional Ownership 37%
Short Interest 1%
Dividend
10-K / 10-Q
10-K 3/31/19
- Legal Proceedings
there was a compensation lawsuit; settlement had no material effect
- Risk Factors
history of losses, limited number of customers, now depending on sales agents, strong competition, government subsidies for LED lighting in some states and countries (subsidy risk), relying on third-party manufacturing, commodity risk, debt covenants, environmental regulation, fluctuating revenue and results, HQ for sale at a loss, no dividends for foreseeable future
- Related Party Transactions / Related Transactions
will be filed later
News Headlines
- Google News
* big new customer producing higher revenue and multiple expansion
- Seeking Alpha
- ProQuest (1 year)
* Orion financially backing Martin distributed energy firm
Most recent earnings press release
6/4/19 4Q
* revenue up 49% v. yr ago Q, small and narrowing net loss
* big new customer with $10M order
* benefitting from cost-cutting
* products becoming smarter (Internet of Things)
* working on big national accounts
* $8M in cash, $1M Q net loss = cash burn rate of 8 quarters left.
Bottom Line
- Terrible financial position, but stock price goes up and company endures despite it all
- it’s a generally improving situation
- up-to-date cash burn rate is 8 quarters left. OK for Sine Wave Investing. This company will not go bankrupt overnight.
- big new customer, but success may not persist. ‘we’ve changed our distribution channels’ - I’ve heard this before in another company, but that stock continued to languish
- insiders and shorts not betting against the company
- there should be lots here to generate the kind of hope and despair that drives Sine Wave cycles
- OK for sine wave investing with risk management, e.g., small bet
- updated 7/3/19
- OESX
Entry/Exit Point in at 2.66 / sell at $3
or when finishes run
52Wk Hi/Lo 0.53 - 3.09
number of 10% Sine Wave rolls in 1-yr chart 6 - good
P/E n/a (net loss)
Profitable or string of losses? String of losses
Current Ratio 1.5 not good
- Current Assets divided by Current Liabilities
- Rule of Thumb: 2 is considered adequate for manufacturers
LT Debt as a percent of capitalization 84% very hi
- LT Debt / LT Debt + OE on balance sheet
Interest Coverage Ratio negative - very bad
- EBIT / I
- Rule of Thumb for Safety: 3-4
Cash Flow from Operations negative and growing - very bad
Cash Burn Rate 87 / 66 = 1.3 quarters left. Bad
- Cash and Equivalents / quarterly net loss outdated - see below
Insider Activity 3 buys, no sales last 6 mo.s
at 0.57 - 3.00
Institutional Ownership 37%
Short Interest 1%
Dividend
10-K / 10-Q
10-K 3/31/19
- Legal Proceedings
there was a compensation lawsuit; settlement had no material effect
- Risk Factors
history of losses, limited number of customers, now depending on sales agents, strong competition, government subsidies for LED lighting in some states and countries (subsidy risk), relying on third-party manufacturing, commodity risk, debt covenants, environmental regulation, fluctuating revenue and results, HQ for sale at a loss, no dividends for foreseeable future
- Related Party Transactions / Related Transactions
will be filed later
News Headlines
- Google News
* big new customer producing higher revenue and multiple expansion
- Seeking Alpha
- ProQuest (1 year)
* Orion financially backing Martin distributed energy firm
Most recent earnings press release
6/4/19 4Q
* revenue up 49% v. yr ago Q, small and narrowing net loss
* big new customer with $10M order
* benefitting from cost-cutting
* products becoming smarter (Internet of Things)
* working on big national accounts
* $8M in cash, $1M Q net loss = cash burn rate of 8 quarters left.
Bottom Line
- Terrible financial position, but stock price goes up and company endures despite it all
- it’s a generally improving situation
- up-to-date cash burn rate is 8 quarters left. OK for Sine Wave Investing. This company will not go bankrupt overnight.
- big new customer, but success may not persist. ‘we’ve changed our distribution channels’ - I’ve heard this before in another company, but that stock continued to languish
- insiders and shorts not betting against the company
- there should be lots here to generate the kind of hope and despair that drives Sine Wave cycles
- OK for sine wave investing with risk management, e.g., small bet